Analyse BASF SE

Fundamentele Analyse : Q1 2018


Fundamentele Analyse : FY 2017


Fundamentele Analyse 27-4

Technische Analyse 27-4

27-4 De weerstandslijn is getrokken langs de slotkoers van dinsdag 4 april (= bovenkant lichaam groene candle). De steunlijn ligt onder de rode candle van vrijdag 24 februari. 

Het oplopende kt trendkanaal is aan de onderkant begrensd door wederom de rode candle van 24 februari samen met die van donderdag 20 april. De bovenkant van het trendkanaal is de evenwijdige verschuiving van de onderste lijn tot de slotkoers van dinsdag 4 april.

 

Na de publicatie van de 1e kwartaalcijfers van 2017 is de koers teruggevallen op de onderkant van het kt oplopende trendkanaal (= 88.66 EUR) en is daarna hersteld en gesloten op 89.98 EUR, 1.33% onder het slot van gisteren.

 

 


Fundamentele Analyse : Q1 2017

Our expectations for the global economic environment in 2017 remain unchanged:

– Growth in gross domestic product: 2.3%

– Growth in industrial production: 2.3%

– Growth in chemical production: 3.4%

– An average euro/dollar exchange rate of $1.05 per euro

– An average oil price for the year of $55 per barrel.

 

The statements on opportunities and risks made in the BASF Report 2016 remain valid.

 

We confirm the sales and earnings forecast for the BASF Group made in the BASF Report 2016:

– Considerable (i.e., at least 6%) sales increase

– Slight (i.e., up to 10%) increase in EBIT before special items

and in EBIT

– Significant premium on cost of capital with considerable

decline in EBIT after cost of capital

 

Source : BASF SE Quarterly Statement 1st Quarter 2017, April 27, 2017


Fundamentele Analyse : FY 2016

Kurt Bock, BASF Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors said : In 2016, we achieved the goals we set for ourselves for growth and earnings. We successfully grew in the chemicals business and further improved pro tability. It was foreseeable that earnings in Oil & Gas would not match the previous year’s level. The oil price declined further – by around 15%, to an average of $44 per barrel for Brent crude in 2016. Furthermore, we had divested our gas trading and storage business in the third quarter of 2015. As a result, BASF Group’s EBIT before special items of €6.3 billion was slightly lower overall, down by 6% versus the previous year. As expected, sales declined considerably, by 18% to €57.6 billion.

 

In the Oil & Gas business we made dramatic adjustments to our costs and expenditures in response to the changing market conditions. As expected, sales and earnings in the segment were signi cantly below the previous year’s level. An important development was our increased production of oil and gas in 2016. Following the sale of our gas trading business we are concentrating on the exploration and production of oil and gas.

We want to create value for our shareholders. The benchmark for this is positive EBIT after cost of capital. The considerable improvement in 2016 is especially satisfying because the chemicals business and our crop protection business successfully contributed to this. We were thus able to more than offset the price-related negative contribution from our Oil & Gas business.

 

Innovation and sustainability – which are closely related – are key pillars of our strategy. In order to offer customized solutions to our customers in the various regions and markets, we have continuously expanded our global research and development activities. In 2016 we further developed our approach to innovation. Our researchers are working on using digital technologies even more. We are integrating digital technologies in our research processes and using data

to explore new questions. We also want to make greater use of scienti c models to predict the properties of chemical structures. These measures help us strengthen our long-term competitiveness and take advantage of new growth opportunities.

Digitalization will change BASF in other areas, too. We have bundled, focused and accelerated our digitalization activities under the name BASF 4.0. The digital transformation will in uence the way we manage our factories in the future, how we work seamlessly with our suppliers and customers, and how we tap and develop new business opportunities and markets. This report contains examples of how we are doing this. We see digitalization as an opportunity for BASF and for our employees – and we will actively shape it.

 


Kurt Bock, BASF Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors said : In our chemicals business, the oil price initially had a positive impact on margins. Soon, however, it was clear that our customers were becoming increasingly cautious. They held back from ordering – in the expectation of further declines in prices for chemical products. Pressure on margins increased in the course of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter.

 We expect to achieve a slightly lower level of EBIT before special items than in 2015. We want to again increase earnings in our chemicals and crop protection businesses, but this will not be sufficient to compensate for the massive decline in earnings in the oil and gas business. The oil price will continue to be the biggest risk in 2016. If it should remain below our expected average of $40 per barrel, then we will be unlikely to offset this by means of higher earnings in the chemicals business.

 Strict cost and expenditure discipline will therefore also be top priority in 2016. This applies in particular to cutting back on capital expenditures, which we will reduce significantly following the increase in 2013 to 2015. A special challenge in this area will be in adjusting expenditures for the development of oil and gas fields.

 Research and development and thus innovations remain at the heart of our competitiveness. In 2015, we reached our goal of achieving sales of around €10 billion with new and improved products that have been on the market for less than five years. Following a significant increase in research and development spending in the past years, we plan to maintain expenditure at the previous year’s level in 2016. Our goal is to convince our customers by continually offering new products and solutions. Since customers are increasingly focusing on sustainability, we see business opportunities that we want to seize through our innovations. 

We will further increase the proportion of sales from products that contribute particularly to sustainability.

 

Source : BASF SE Annual Report 2015, Letter to Shareholders, February 26, 2016


Technische Analyse

14-3 Verkoop @ 65.48

 

In de koersgrafiek is een weerstandslijn getekend bij 65.27 €. Deze koers correspondeert met het steun niveau van eind september vorig jaar. Afgelopen donderdag werd de weerstandslijn voor het eerst getest en vandaag ten tweede male.

 

Omdat het aandeel bovendien 'strong overbought' is, wordt een aanbeveling gegeven voor een verkoop. De koers ligt dan 15% boven de slotkoers van 56.70 € op 11 februari j.l.

 

Een hernieuwde instap behoort tot de mogelijkheden, maar pas nadat het aandeel wat van de winst van de afgelopen periode heeft prijsgegeven.


26 - 4 De eerdere weerstandslijn op het koersniveau van 65,26 EUR correspondeert in de aangepaste grafiek met het 50% Fibonacci retracement level. De koers is bij het slot van vandaag 7.5% gestegen tot boven het geadviseerde verkoop moment. Het aandeel is zwaar overbought en verliest momentum. We wachten tot het 50% niveau is bereikt voordat tot hernieuwde actie kan worden overgegaan. Er is tegelijkertijd een opwaarts trendkanaal zichtbaar geworden waarbij de onderkant ook een trigger kan opleveren voor een instap.

 


17 -6 De steun en weerstands lijnen zijn afkomstig uit de week grafiek. De laatste is niet zichtbaar in de afgebeelde dag grafiek. De middelste lijn ligt op gelijke afstand van de weerstands- en steunlijn van 55.52 EUR. Onduidelijk is of de koers zich in het oplopende trendkanaal bevindt of zich zijwaarts beweegt langs de 50% lijn.