Analyse Inmarsat plc

Fundamentele Analyse : FY 2017


Fundamentele Analyse : Q1 2017

5-5 Inmarsat moet volgens geldende accounting regels de convertible bonds herwaarderen tegen faire value en dat leidt tot een afwaardering van 58.3 miljoen USD (en een per saldo netto verlies van (6.1) miljoen USD).

 

Corrigeren we het kwartaalresultaat met de herwaardering dan ontstaat een Adjusted Profit After Tax van +52.2 miljoen USD. Dan zien de ratio's voor de standaard business activiteiten er ineens een stuk fraaier uit. De winstgevendheid ROA neemt toe bij dalende prijs ratio's P/E (en EV/EBITDA). De markt geloofd er niks van en waardeert het aandeel met een kleine 8% af.

 

Een nadere bestudering van de balans leert dat de schuldpositie is verslechterd en het eigen vermogen ten opzichte eind 2016 constant is gebleven en niet is toegenomen.

 

Rupert Pearce, Inmarsat’s Chief Executive Officer Inmarsat, commented : “Positive momentum was maintained across our business in the first quarter of 2017, following on from an encouraging performance in the final quarter of last year. This was achieved in spite of cyclical recession and other headwinds in many of our core markets.

 

Supported by our performance in the first quarter of 2017, Inmarsat remains well placed for the medium term. We have well-established and proven communication networks, substantial spectrum assets to fuel those networks, differentiated capability in running global mobility services, a market-leading global distribution network and a significant base of loyal customers to whom we will continue to provide high quality service and delivery. These elements, particularly in challenging markets at a time of substantial change, provide Inmarsat with a strong foundation from which to capture the significant growth opportunities that will emerge in the coming years.”

 

Source : Inmarsat plc First Quarter Results 2017, London, UK, 4 May 2017


Fundamentele Analyse : FY 2016

Rupert Pearce, Chief Executive Officer, commented:

“Despite a challenging operating environment in our markets, we delivered a robust performance in 2016, supported by the first material revenues from our GX platform and a successfully negotiated upgrade of the Ligado agreement. As a result, Inmarsat remains well-positioned to take advantage of a number of significant growth opportunities in the coming years, supported by our unique skills and experience in global, mobile, broadband services, our solutions-based offerings, our strong global networks and our market-leading distribution channels.

Our investment strategy is targeted towards maximising these future growth opportunities, particularly in the area of IFC, where we need to invest quickly and decisively to ensure we become a leader in a new sector that is emerging at pace, and that has very distinct service requirements.

We delivered our first GX IFC services to customers in 2016, with installations beginning for the Deutsche Lufthansa Group during the fourth quarter. Negotiations with many other airlines are continuing, with IAG, Air New Zealand, Singapore Airlines and Norwegian Air Shuttle also now being committed to using Inmarsat’s IFC services. Our planning for the EAN remains on track, with our objective for this innovative hybrid network to be operational during the second half of 2017.

In Maritime, we saw the first installations of Fleet Xpress last year and momentum here is expected to grow strongly in 2017, assisted by several material new strategic distribution agreements signed over the last 12 months. It was also important to see growth in both our core FleetBroadband revenues and average revenue per user (“ARPU”), despite on-going depressed maritime markets, demonstrating our value to the new digital shipping environment.

Over the year, our Government businesses delivered good growth, driven by GX, whilst Enterprise was impacted by relatively weak demand in all of its key markets.

Our progress in 2016 will provide a solid foundation for continued delivery of the growth and diversification of Inmarsat into the future.”

 

Source : Inmarsat plc Preliminary Full Year Results 2016, London, UK, 8 March 2017


Fundamentele Analyse : FY 2015

Rupert Pearce, Inmarsat’s Chief Executive Officer Inmarsat, commented,

“2015 has been another year of solid achievement during a period of transition as we bring our Global Xpress services to market and establish our new European Aviation Network. We have been equal to the challenges of some very difficult market conditions whilst putting in place the foundations for an exciting future with higher growth and a more diversified business.

We successfully launched the second and third Inmarsat-5 Global Xpress Ka-band satellites in February and August 2015 respectively and in December we announced Global Commercial Service Introduction for Global Xpress. We now have the satellite platform in place to deliver a steadily growing material new revenue stream for the Group.

We also made significant progress on our plans to develop a new aviation cabin connectivity opportunity globally. In Europe, we put in place a partnership with Deutsche Telekom for them to build the air-to-ground network that will be fully integrated with our S-band satellite programme to form the European Aviation Network, the world’s first hybrid network for broadband connectivity to aircraft. We continued our efforts to secure necessary ground and satellite licences in all 28 EU member states and two further European countries, and now have 28 satellite authorisations in Europe and confirmations from 18 countries regarding ground-based licences. Our negotiations with individual airlines also continued, with notable deals for Global Xpress services being concluded with Deutsche Lufthansa and Singapore Airlines. I expect to be able to report further progress in this area in 2016 given continued strong customer interest.

After adjusting for disposals, total Group revenues were unchanged on last year, driven mainly by growth in our revenues from Aviation, Enterprise and LightSquared but with continuing weakness in government expenditure across the globe. Maritime revenues were little changed, with strong growth in our two key products, FleetBroadband and XpressLink, continuing to be offset by decline in our non-core legacy product suite.

EBITDA increased by $25m reflecting unchanged revenues but lower costs as the impact of improved product mix more than offset the additional costs incurred to deliver the new opportunities in Aviation and to support our new GX infrastructure. We will invest further in these areas over the coming years to maximise the longer term opportunities for growth.”

 

Source : Inmarsat plc Preliminary Full Year Results 2015, London, UK, 3 March 2016


Technische Analyse

12 - 5 De koers van Inmarsat plc is in een dalend trendkanaal terecht gekomen. De koers is vandaag op 7.96 GBP gesloten. Dat is net onder de steunlijn van 8.00 GBP.

 

De komende dagen gaan we zien of dit een niveau van belang is. 


13 - 5 Koop @ 7.345 GBP

 

De steun van 8.00 GBP blijkt van geen enkele waarde. De koers bereikt vandaag een laagste koers van 7.285 GBP om uiteindelijk licht te herstellen en te sluiten op 7.60 GBP. 

 

 


16 - 6 Inmarsat plc is relegated from the FTSE100 and will be listed in the FTSE250 starting Monday, 20 June. The ugly picture on the left has been drawn on a weekly base and shows the stock is back on the levels of the end of 2013. Todays closing is @ 6.925 GBP.


22 - 6 Verkoop @ 7.36 GBP

 

We are out just before the referendum results of tomorrow June 23rd. The stochast indicates the stock is overbought.

 

Ideally you're aiming at a level just below the 7.47 GBP (and go out before the referendum results).